Bluespace Blog
HS2 goes on ! How much longer before it hits the buffers. 10/11/2011
In our new paper we get a step closer to explaining why the Government has deluded itself and others into believing that we will all want to travel so much more frequently to London in the future, and that we will travel into a major city to get there.
Thankfully after 18 months of trying to explains the flaws in the demand forecasts people are starting to listen. This is being helped by the extreme claims being made for HS2 by its promoters. I heard this morning on the BBC news the suggestion it will create 1 million jobs and be whisper quiet. In previous reports the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce have suggested it will increase the local GDP by 6%, even the lobby group Greegauge21 only suggest a 0.03% improvement and this doesn't allow for the transfer of leisure activity from Birmingham to London as people are able to travel for a night out or to go shopping.
In November 2011 the DfT amended their forecasting guidance documents and their links to reports criticising the guidance are broken, this morning the link to the consultation document didn't work. There will now be 2 to 3 years of close scrutiny, HS2 may go ahead but with the analytical community getting more interested, and the analytical errors being understood by more people, at least the UK electorate will, hopefully, understand what HS2 will and more importantly will not do for them in the future.
1 million jobs, whisper quiet and a 6% increase in the West Midlands GDP are not going to happen.
Please take a few moments to read the DfT report (Workstream 1) that explains the analysis errors
Do we still have slavery in the UK ? 16/11/2011
Did anybody else notice that the investigation into the Border Agencies pilot focused on whether Ministers had approved a possible extension to the changes but not the changes themselves. The idea of focusing resources on areas of concern rather than treating all entrants in the same way must make sense.
However when I heard that the relaxations included reduced checking of children's passports as they entered the country it made me wonder how many children are trafficked into and out of the country that we do not know about
According to official sources 202 cases of trafficking into or within the UK have been recorded in the first 9 months of the year. Maybe there are 10 to 25 times as many cases that have not been discovered. I have no evidence for this guess but if it is in the right ball park that is 2500 - 6000 people trafficked into slavery in the UK this year just 178 years after 1833 Slavery Abolishment Act.
Surely if things were this bad everybody would know about the problem and the Government would have it on the top of their priority list. Well maybe the Government know but do the rest of us? We know when there are individual high profile cases of abduction, particularly of young children, but do we understand the link between these cases and our ability to eradicate the overall problem of peoples entire lives being stolen as they are taken and held in permanent servitude.
There are a number of organisations involved in increasing awareness of Trafficking. For my part I am going to investigate further, I doubt there is much I can do, but if there were, I would want to help.
Please take a few minutes to learn a little more .... United Nation Stop the Traffik. End Child Prostitution, Child Pornography and the Trafficking of Children for Sexual Purposes
Bluespace Blog or should it be commentariat ? 20/5/11
The saddest part of the ITV Central HS2 debate.
Hearing a senior Government Minster say that an increase in Birmingham wages will be good for local businesses, they have to sell products and services in the real world, – it maybe an expedient political promise but it raises a question about Government competence.
The reason manufacturing, electronics assembly, the automotive industry, call centres and other UK Industries have moved to the more competitive Far East is due to lower wages. The first step in the economic regeneration of Birmingham is not a fast train that causes wage inflation. Business people from Birmingham make more trips per £ of Gross Value Added than anywhere else in the UK, the problem is not transport. London has the fewest business journeys of any UK region, they use the phone, video meetings and internet transacted business. For those that use the internet these details are all available on the Office of National Statistics website.
The next sad bit was the comment there was no alternative to HS2 and that the West Coast Main Line will be full in 6 to 10 years. The Secretary of State can not have read his own HS2 consultation documents. The documents on the DfT website explains both that there is an Alternative and that passenger growth on the WCML can continue for the next 25-30 years with the improvements that are already planned.
Researching my submission for the Transport Select Committee Inquiry into High Speed Rail I investigated the work of Professor David Begg, not David Begg Professor of Economics at Imperial College, but Prof David Begg the Director of the rail company FirstGroup, ex Chairman of Tube Lines Holdings Ltd, until its demise and necessary take over by TfL, and an ex director of the abolished Strategic Rail Authority.
Proff Begg has stated that “The correct choice is obvious; we need to invest in a new high-speed rail network for Britain”. I couldn't find any academic research or evidence from Professor Begg about economic regeneration or demand forecasting to back up his assertion but I found the reason for his advice on the Ferryonline website.
Professor Begg kicked off the pro-HS2 group following a dinner attended by senior figures from the transport industry, as well as Philip Hammond, Britain’s transport secretary. Professor Begg emailed attendees from the dinner, asking every (transport) company joining the non-profit campaign body to provide a £10,000 contribution. …...........Potential members of the campaign group were sent a list of objectives that includes tackling the ‘commentariat’ that threatens to degrade support for HS2. The campaign pledges to implement a systematic approach similar to that used to foster political support during election campaigns.
Rail franchises and major transport construction contracts are in the gift of the Secretary of State and the DfT so £10,000 maybe a small price to pay. It is worth looking at the list of supporters of Professor Begg's Yes campaign. Take for example Mr Gilbert of Aberdeen Asset Management.
The Herald Scotland website reports :-
Aberdeen Asset Management chief executive Martin Gilbert has cashed in £6.3 million of company shares in just nine months,..........He already has the basis for a non-executive career after Aberdeen, serving as chairman of fellow Aberdeen-based FirstGroup
Is the serious debate about HS2 based on fact, evidence and the intent to make the right decision over ? Hopefully not. The Transport Select Committee Inquiry and the Institution of Civil Engineers consultation have more chance of being objective. The Labour Party are carrying out a review and the DfT have been requested to publish all the data on their Alternative scheme that the Secretary of State says does not exist. The press are asking more searching questions every day and there seems to be a view it will all end up with a Judicial review. The ITV debate facebook vote has 75% of voters against HS2.
We already have a “train wreck” economy, it is time Government gave serious thought to how they are really going to generate economic growth.
Malcolm Griffiths